经济全球油价上涨，这个锅该谁背？

国内油价经历了"五连涨",95号汽油更是一脚迈进"9元时代"加油站里，车友们相互打招呼的方式都是"你的油箱加满了吗？"以前平平无奇的一句"95加满"竟让人欲说还休国际油价到底是怎么了，我们真的加不起油了吗？不含注释全文：http://www . Sina.com/Oil spikes to 2008 highs as U.S., Europe mull Russian oil import ban

布伦特原油周一飙升至每桶近130美元，为2008年以来的最高水平，因为美国和欧洲盟友正在考虑俄罗斯的石油进口禁令，而伊朗原油可能重返全球市场的延迟加剧了供应紧张的担忧。截至格林威治时间07:23,布伦特原油期货价格上涨10.88美元，至每桶128.99美元，涨幅9.2%,美国西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)价格上涨9.80美元，至每桶125.48美元，涨幅8.5%。

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In the first few minutes of trade on Monday, both benchmarks spiked more than $10 a barrel to their highest since July 2008 with Brent at $139.13 and WTI at $130.50.

Monday’s intraday highs are near record levels seen for both contracts in July 2008 when Brent hit $147.50 a barrel and WTI touched $147.27. The United States and European allies are exploring banning imports of Russian oil, Blinken said on Sunday, and the White House coordinated with key Congressional committees moving forward with their own ban.

“The scramble for additional barrels to fill what could balloon to a 3-4 mb/d Russian export deficit will undoubtedly move into warp speed this week,” RBC Capital’s Helima Croft said in a note.

“This could prove to be a tall order as immediate OPEC spare capacity currently rests with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, and we estimate that these four countries could only bring on between 2.0-2.5 mb/d in the next 30-60 days,” she said, adding that it remains to be seen how many countries will join a formal Russian oil embargo.

Global oil prices have spiked more than 60% since the start of 2022, along with other commodities, raising concerns about world economic growth and stagflation. China, world’s No. 2 economy, is already targeting a slower growth of 5.5% this year.

Fuel prices have surpassed 2008 records with U.S. gasoline at a high of $3.890 per gallon and heating oil futures at $4.237 per gallon. Analysts at Bank of America said if most of Russia’s oil exports are cut off, there could be a 5 million barrel or larger shortfall, and that means oil prices could double from $100 to $200 a barrel, while JP Morgan analysts said this week oil could soar to $185 per barrel this year.

“If the supply tightness does not ebb, oil may exceed way above its record high,” Howie Lee, an economist at Singapore’s OCBC bank said. “In the worst case scenario of a complete sanction on Russia’s energy exports, I won’t be surprised to see Brent trading above $200,” he added.

Russia is the world’s top exporter of crude and oil products combined, with exports at around 7 million bpd, or 7% of global supply. Some volumes of Kazakhstan’s oil exports from Russian ports have also faced complications.

Despite the oil price surge, U.S. energy firms cut the number of operating oil rigs last week, underscoring supply concerns. In Libya, the closure of the El Feel and Sharara oilfields resulted in the loss of 330,000 barrels per day (bpd), the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Sunday, more than 25% of its output in 2021.

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